Part I
AS I’m writing this piece, a bevy of 10-wheel trucks are getting ready to leave the Singur Nano factory premises, filled with what could have been Bengal’s regeneration package – materials and machinery parts from the Tata plant. A factory that could have been the beacon light for the perennially sick industry in Bengal is now being stripped off to its foundations on the once-fertile land, slowly but surely.
By nightfall these trucks will be safely away from the West Bengal borders, a border that Mr. Ratan Tata, or for that matter any other industrialist, will tread with caution in the future.
Monday night’s incident of armed intrusion into the factory premises and the beating up of two security guards (one of whom is battling for life in a Kolkata hospital) was possibly the last wake-up call Tata Motors was waiting for. And with the West Bengal Industries minister Mr. Nirupam Sen practically admitting yesterday that hope for the Singur plant was getting bleaker by every passing day, the end seems imminent. The Tata’s announcement on winding up the factory seems now seems just a matter of time.
At this point in time, when all the roadblocks (read Tata motors) to the “re-agriculturisation” of Singur have been successfully uprooted, I feel it’s necessary to analyze the situation objectively and list the possible directions this movement will now take.
Let’s assume that Tata Motors has announced its decision to move ahead, and it leaves Singur.
Possibility 1: Tata Motors acquiesces land rights to the WB government. Both parties decide to cancel the lease agreement.
The things that can happen then, not necessarily in serial order:
1. The government returns the land to the unwilling farmers who have not taken the compensation, or who return the compensation cheque
2. The government keeps the land given by the willing farmers; fences off the land
3. Mamata Banerjee starts another agitation, this time in favour of willing farmers, and wants the entire 1000 acres back. Farmers are unwilling to give back the compensation amount, but want the land nonetheless.
4. Mob breaks down the government fencing and reclaims the land. Government goes weak at the knees, again. The Chief Minister announces that the government is unable to forcibly remove the people from the government land. The mob must now decide how to best divide the land amongst the farmers.
5. Singur farmers allege that ‘outsiders’ are taking over their land inside the project area. However, very few dare to lodge a police complaint. Those who do die mysteriously in a matter of hours. Panchayat, police and CPI(M) pledge helplessness.
6. Mamata Banerjee, Trinamool Congress, and the likes of Becharam Manna request the farmers of Singur to “adjust”. The “outsider brothers” who have supported their movement for so long need a “little land” to settle in Singur. The Singur farmers understand, at last. The CPI(M) is slowly wiped off from the region.
7. Mamata threatens the state government with another agitation if the government does not sanction money to remove the concrete piling from the “acquired” land.
8. The Jindal Group, the Videocon Industries, the Essar Group, the Atomic Energy Commission, Bengal Shipyard, and numerous other industrialists join the bandwagon, decide to shift their projects from West Bengal. The WBIDC is in a state of perpetual shock.
9. May 2009, General Elections: The people of Bengal are at last united. They now know the new messiah of the rural and urban poor. Trinamool Congress and its allies bag 34 among the 42 Lok Sabha seats on offer. Some fools, intellectuals, industrialists who voted for other parties are mercilessly beaten up by unknown assailants. CPI(M) cries itself hoarse with allegations of “rigging”.
10. New unions at the Writers’ Building vow to stop the government machinery from functioning.
11. “Unwilling farmers” led by the usual suspects lay siege to Sector V. Demand buildings need to be pulled down to create farming opportunities for the local jobless. Rajarhat sees a first, autos being used to plough the land.
12. The people of Bengal wait with bated breath for a new agricultural dawn.
Possibility II in the next post…
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